Ukraine is the first on the Kremlin’s priorities list. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to gain a foothold on the line of the Dnieper river, but does not have sufficient resources, Joinfo.ua reports with the reference to Stratfor.
“If Ukraine falls under the serious influence of the West, Russia’s south-eastern flank will remain unprotected. In the interests of the Russian leadership is to hold its troops on the position along the line of the Dnieper. However, Russia does not have enough resources to do this and also endure the accompanying military and economic losses. Therefore, Russia needs to settle down. The best Moscow can do now is to press for the autonomy for the so-called LPR and DPR. But if the Kremlin feels that their demands are ignored, the Donbas immediately escalates the violence. As soon as Germany and France put pressure on Kiev to step back, the fighting will immediately cease, “- predicted the American analysts.
According to analysts of Stratfor, this scenario is far from ideal for Moscow. “In spite of that, Russia will not withdraw its troops from a base in eastern Ukraine. But given the fact that the dynamics of the fighting enables Kiev to adopt the American military experience, Russia should be very carefully in its military maneuvers in eastern Ukraine. On the one hand, Moscow must clearly show that any Western pressure could lead to a direct confrontation with the Russians, but, at the same time, the Russian Federation can not go so far that the situation called for a more active US intervention, “- noted in the company.
Also, the analysts reported that the front of the Kremlin’s military action has expanded in recent years, so it has become more difficult to stick to a strategy of pocket states supporting. “In addition to the ‘re-adoption’ (annexation) of Crimea, which covers an area of 26,000 km2with a population of about 2 million, Russia has added to the basket the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR, together occupying about 16,000 km2 and home to about 3.5 million people, “- the document says.
According to information from Stratfor, Russia annually spends about $300 million to Abkhazia, as well as $ 100 million in Transnistria and South Ossetia. In 2015, Russia has spent at least $2.42 billion to annexed Crimea, as well, according to the report Higher School of Economics analyst Sergei Aleksashenko, the federal budget for 2015 provided at least $2 billion for the self-proclaimed “republics” of the Donbas.
Earlier, an analyst Andrei Piontkovsky suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin imagines himself a kind of “pakhan” of the whole world, and behaves accordingly in Syria and Ukraine. But the whole world has seen through his true intentions. No wonder if he can find cause to refuse to participate in the UN General Assembly.
It should be recalled that at a meeting in Tajikistan, President Vladimir Putin said that Russian troops in Syria is a necessity in the fight against international terrorism. He also made a statement, which implies that Russia supports, and intends to continue to support the current ruler of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, including militarily.