A Russian lawyer and doctor of political sciences, Vladimir Pastukhov, believes that Russia is now in a very difficult situation. Both economic and political. Pastukhov outlined in detail all the possible scenarios, described the picture of the world as it is seen from the Kremlin, and talked about what “secret President Vladimir Putin conceals,” Joinfo.ua reports referring to Slon.
“The current situation is unique and has no serious precedents in the Russian history. But due to the fact that the history of Russia is cyclical, we can speak of resemblance with several periods.
The first one is a “period of reaction” of 1912-1917 , the era that preceded the February Revolution, with characteristic decomposition, ‘Rasputination’, final disintegration and degradation of the state machine, the growth of centrifugal tendencies. This similarity is very acute. That is, the current situation is primarily a pre-sixteenth year,” the Russian lawyer said.
The second stage was the post-war freeze of 1948-1953, that is the era of “Autumn of the Patriarch”: the leaders entangled in the intrigues of each against other, a sense of global political zugzwang, a rapid change in the relationship with the West – from cooperation to confrontation.
Pastukhov considers the third stage the peak of stagnation with Afghanistan of 1978-1983, ‘Suslovation’, economic stagnation.
Answering the question of whether Russia’s political situation will improve, Pastukhov said that it would happen only if all the present trends reached their logical conclusion.
“If nothing extraordinary happens, everything will be in accordance with the famous Parkinson’s Law, according to which things left to themselves, tend to evolve from bad to worse. All the trends that are currently only outlined will reach their logical end,” said the lawyer.
Pastukhov believes that in order to reverse these trends, the movement of will is needed. But he also suggests that in the history simple patterns always work, so there is a great chance that everything will be left neglected. And it will only worsen the situation.
The Russian lawyer also told about the secret of Putin’s popularity. According to him, the first one is people’s animal fear of the future.
“When the lion is approaching a flock of antelopes, all of them group around the leader. At this point, no one is thinking whether the leader is good or bad. The society is unconfident. All this bluster, which has developed after a conflict with Ukraine, is compensatory, because any aggression is manifestation of an inferiority complex. This feeling of inferiority and sense of hidden and repressed fear is now offset by the overall aggression and the desire to rally around the leader,” says the lawyer.
He calls Putin’s illiberality as another factor.
“Today he is one of the few politicians who share the psychological trauma of the people: he does not ignore the Versailles syndrome, but gamble on it. The Russian society is affected by the Versailles syndrome and in this sense, it is very close to the condition the Germans were at the end of the twenties and thirties. It is humiliated empire, humiliated imperial people. And President Vladimir Putin gives answers, everyone is in fact expecting,” said Petukhov.