Import phase-out in Russia does not benefit in any manufacturing sector except for food production. Such a conclusion was made by analysts at Moody’s Investors Service in their quarterly Global Macro Outlook report, Joinfo.ua reports.
“Engineering industry and production of equipment are reducing fast <…> When the real incomes of the population stabilizes and demand increases, the level of import will likely to grow again,” experts say.
According to analysts, in 2015 Russia’s GDP will decline by 3%, and in 2016 we can expect a zero growth.
Russian experts do not agree with the conclusions of Moody’s. In particular, according to Oleg Kuzmin, the chief economist of Renaissance Capital, import phase-out is working effectively, and in a short time the effect will be noticeable. Yegor Susin, the main expert of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting, believes that it would be wrong to assume that import substitution will work within a short time.