Home / World / Stratfor analysts make forecast for 10 years: Russia awaits collapse, although U.S. will weaken too

Stratfor analysts make forecast for 10 years: Russia awaits collapse, although U.S. will weaken too

Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence and consulting firm, published its forecast for the next 10 years, which refers to the major global political and economic changes in the world.

Stratfor analysts make forecast for 10 years: Russia awaits collapse, although U.S. will weaken too

Stratfor predicts that in the next 10 years the Russian Federation will cease to be the world's largest economy, the U.S. authorities will start to weaken, Germany and China will have problems, and Europe will split, Joinfo.ua reports referring to Novoe Vremya.


- The collapse of Russia. Sanctions, oil prices decline, ruble fall, rising military expenditures and accelerating growth of internal contradictions will not allow the Kremlin to keep Russia on the list of world's largest economies. The Russian Federation will not split into several pieces, but Moscow will lose its power over the regions.

- The United States will have to intensely guard nuclear forces. If there is political disintegration in the Russian Federation, the Russian nuclear infrastructure scattered over large geographical expanses will represent an even greater threat. And the United States will have to decide what to do. The country will even have to deploy its ground forces for the defense of nuclear weapons, uranium warehouses and delivery systems.

- Germany will have problems. Export-oriented economy may suffer more than others because of the crisis in the eurozone and the waves of euroscepticism. The country can await serious economic shocks.

- Poland will be one of the European leaders. The country will be at the center of economic development and will increase political influence.

- The division of Europe. The days of European unity with blurred political and economic barriers and disappearance of all the regional and national will pass. There will be four Europes: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the British Isles, which will not be so close.

- Turkey and the United States will become close allies. Turkey will take the most stable position among the Muslim countries facing different vicissitudes. The country is reluctant to intervene in the conflicts on its borders, but it will have to do it. Given the strength and attractiveness of Turkey, it can become an indispensable partner of the United States, but in return it will require protection against the potential aggressor on the other side of the Black Sea – Russia, which has military bases in Armenia.

- China will face a huge challenge. Slow economic growth may cause resentment against the ruling Communist Party. The party will not agree to liberalization and the increase of the internal control will be the only choice for it. In addition, the success of China is limited geographically both within the country and in international markets.

- Japan will be the main Asian naval power. The country, which depends on imports, will have to face the competition of China and to protect its own sea lanes. Tokyo will have no other option but to strengthen its power in the region. And it will have to do it alone, because the position of the United States will weaken.

- The dispute over the islands in the South China Sea will remain in force. The dispute over the islands will not provoke a military conflict, however, it will remain a problem. Russia will cede ground somehow, while China and Japan will be interested in seizing them and will put a spoke in the wheel to each other on the way to this goal.

- 16 mini-Chinas. China's economy will slow down, but the production will remain at the same level. It will provide additional opportunities for other developing countries. Workplaces will move to Mexico, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines and Indonesia.

- The U.S. power will start to weaken. Washington will become too prudent in solving the world's problems, instead of taking an active leadership position. This will make the world more unpredictable. However, the U.S. will be more comfortable to isolate itself from the global crises, by having growing economy, domestic energy production, reducing exports and feeling itself the most stable and powerful country of the world.