During the presentation of the report "Beyond Minsk II: Prospects for a new Russian offensive," Philip Karber, the Director of the Potomac Foundation, said that Russia was quite ready for an attack in the Donbas. And if the West does nothing, it will face a humanitarian catastrophe, Joinfo.ua reports with reference to Voice of America.
"Until now, they had separate battalion tactical groups – very small units. Now the Russians are organizing them into brigades and corps. It is made in the territory of the Donbas, and not in Russia. The officers are Russian, command and staff are Russian, weapons munitions are delivered from there too. The only reason why they need such a large organization is to be able to conduct offensive operations and move inland much faster," said Karber.
In the case of a full-scale offensive, not only Ukraine, but the West will face a humanitarian catastrophe, says the Director of the Potomac Foundation.
"20 million people will become refugees. Today, in Ukraine there are 1 million immigrants from the East. All the centers receiving them are overcrowded. In the event of a military operation, from 10 to 20 million Ukrainians will start moving toward the West. Thus, the occupied territory will be a great piece for Putin, but only if does it … We are talking about Europe, which will be completely different in the next 20-30 years," the expert said.
According to Phillip Karber, the only way out of this situation should be military support for Ukraine from the West. To do this, the West has to give Ukraine weapons and abolish unofficial arms embargo, he says.