A parallel between today's situation in Russia and the background for the collapse of the Soviet Union is evident, that is why this year President Vladimir Putin may suffer the same scenario, Die Welt writes.
In late 1980s, the Kremlin began to recover after the war in Afghanistan, as oil prices suddenly fell. And Leonid Brezhnev left the country with economic stagnation, the author writes.
While Mikhail Gorbachev, the first president of the Soviet Union was in the residence in Crimea, his former comrade Boris Yeltsin announced a ban of the Communist Party headed by him in Moscow.
A similar option may be repeated this year with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the experts believe. Russia is fighting with neighboring Ukraine, suffering from oil prices decline and sanctions from the West. However, the Russian president tells about cloudless Russian economy. During the last press conference, he talked about the increase of pensions, reforms and even a record harvest.
Vladimir Putin does not take off his "rose-colored glasses" when describing the Russian economy. However, there is not only economic background for the end of his presidency. Resolving the conflict in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly criticized the West in person and by means of propaganda. He lied about the presence of the Russian army in Crimea, and now he is lying about the soldiers killed in the Donbas. Yet the Russian army constantly provokes the West, breaking the air space of the EU.
As noted in the article, now the president of Russia has no reason to beware of people's anger because of the economic crisis. However, he should be afraid of the business elite. The oligarchs are friends with Putin, but this friendship may end when the president decides that their billions can be a resource, necessary for the country during the crisis.
In addition, the oligarchs understand that Russia can not be economically successful without the West. Inflation will continue, salaries and pensions will be reduced, prices and resentment of the Russians will rise.
"The history of the last century has shown that it is extremely risky to be very rich in a poor country," the journalists say.
Russian oligarchs are not interested in Ukraine. They do not want a new Cold War against the West. But Vladimir Putin is interested in it, since it upvotes him.
"The West does not want to break off relations with Russia. If the Russian president"s entourage does not want it too, in 2015, Vladimir Putin will not survive," the article summarizes.